WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2007/08 ending stocks are down 14 million bushels reflecting lower production.
Winter wheat production is lowered 25 million bushels, partly on lower harvested area in Kansas. Spring wheat (including durum) production is nearly unchanged. Feed and residual use is projected 35 million bushels lower as increased hard red winter wheat abandonment reduces supplies of feed wheat and higher prices make feeding less attractive. Exports are raised 25 million bushels as reduced world supplies boost prospects for U.S. wheat exports and prices. The season-average price is projected at $5.10 to $5.70 per bushel, up 30 cents on each end of the range from last month.
Several minor changes were made to U.S. supply and use estimates for the 2005/06 and 2006/07 marketing years based on recent revisions to 2006 calendar-year imports and exports by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Global 2007/08 wheat production is projected 1.9 million tons lower this month as reduced production in EU-27, the United States, Canada, Turkey, and Brazil more than offset higher production in India and FSU-12. EU-27 production is lowered 1.7 million tons as persistent, heavy rain during harvest reduces yield prospects in France and Germany, and persistent drought and heat reduce yield prospects in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania. Production for Canada is projected 1 million tons lower as hot, dry weather in July reduced prospects for spring wheat in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Output for Turkey and Brazil is lowered, respectively, 0.5 million tons and 0.2 million tons. Production in India is raised 1.19 million tons in line with official government estimates. FSU-12 output is raised 1.25 million tons with harvest results indicating higher-than-expected winter wheat production in Ukraine, and July precipitation increasing yield potential for spring wheat in Russia and Kazakstan.
World imports and exports for 2007/08 are both increased this month. Most of the 0.7-million-ton increase in world imports results from an increase of 0.5 million tons for EU-27. With lower production, EU-27 is expected to import more wheat. World exports are projected 1.2 million tons higher with increases for the United States, Russia, and Australia. Exports for Russia and Australia are projected up 0.5 million tons each, more than offsetting a 0.5-million-ton reduction for EU-27.
Lower production and increased consumption contribute to a reduction in projected global ending stocks, down 1.8 million tons from last month.
COARSE GRAINS: The 2007/08 outlook for U.S. feed grains is for higher production and increased use as tighter world coarse grain supplies boost export demand for U.S. corn and sorghum. USDA's first survey-based forecast for 2007 corn production is 13.1 billion bushels, up 214 million from last month's projection. Feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels with the larger crop. Corn exports are projected 150 million bushels higher reflecting strong world demand as global production is projected lower. Ending stocks for U.S. corn are projected at 1.5 billion bushels, up 14 million bushels from last month, and 379 million bushels higher than projected for 2006/07. The season-average farm price is projected at $2.80 to $3.40 per bushel, unchanged from last month.
The first survey-based forecast for 2007 sorghum production is 475 million bushels, up 45 million from last month. Projected exports for 2007/08 are raised 40 million bushels based on strong world demand for feed grains and lower coarse grain production in EU-27. The season-average farm price is projected 20 cents higher on both ends of the range to $2.60 to $3.20 per bushel reflecting stronger expected export demand.
This month's report includes U.S. supply and use changes for 2005/06 corn and sorghum and 2005/06 and 2006/07 barley and oats based on recent revisions to 2006 calendar-year imports and exports by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This month's global outlook for 2007/08 coarse grains includes lower production, increased trade, and lower ending stocks. Global coarse grain production is projected 5.8 million tons lower this month, mostly reflecting adverse weather in southeastern Europe. EU-27 corn output is lowered 6.8 million tons as extended drought and extreme heat in late June and July devastated crops in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania.
Corn production is projected lower for FSU-12, Bosnia, Croatia, and Serbia, which were affected by similar weather conditions as the southeastern portions of EU-27. Ukraine barley production is also lowered 1.3 million tons. Barley production for Canada is projected 0.5 million tons lower because of record July heat that affected key growing areas in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Global coarse grain imports and exports for 2007/08 are both raised this month reflecting higher projected corn and sorghum trade mostly in response to reduced EU-27 production. EU-27 corn imports are raised 2.5 million tons as reduced supplies and strong feeding demand are expected to boost demand for imported corn. EU-27 sorghum imports are also raised 1 million tons. Global corn exports are projected 3.3-million-tons higher with increased U.S. exports more than offsetting reductions for Russia and Serbia. Brazil corn exports are also raised 0.5 million tons. U.S. sorghum exports are raised 1 million tons mostly in response to stronger expected demand from EU-27.
Global corn ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected 6.1 million tons lower this month.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 80.2 million tons, down fractionally from last month as lower cottonseed production is nearly offset by higher peanut production. Soybean yields are forecast at 41.5 bushels per acre, 1.2 bushels below last year. The first survey-based forecast of U.S. soybean production is 2.63 billion bushels, unchanged from the July projection, and 563 million bushels below last year's crop. Soybean stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down from 245 million last month reflecting reduced carryin.
Soybean crush remains unchanged as reduced soybean meal export prospects are offset by increased domestic soybean meal disappearance.
Soybean oil stocks are raised this month, reflecting an increase in beginning stocks.
The projected U.S. season-average soybean price is unchanged at $7.25 to $8.25 per bushel. Projected prices for soybean meal and soybean oil also are unchanged at $200 to $230 per short ton and 32 to 36 cents per pound, respectively.
Global oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 391.3 million tons, down 4.4 million tons from last month, and down 13.7 million tons from 2006/07. Foreign production is reduced 4.4 million tons from last month.
Soybean production for China is projected at 15.2 million tons, down 0.4 million due to dry weather in the northeastern producing area. Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada and EU-27. Hot, dry weather in Canada and wet harvest weather in EU-27 have reduced yield prospects. Crop projections for both remain above last year's levels due to sharply higher planted area.
Global sunflowerseed production is reduced 8 percent this month due to sharp reductions for Russia, Ukraine, and EU-27. Production estimates are reduced due to lower planted area in Russia and hot, dry July weather in Ukraine and EU-27.
U.S. changes for 2006/07 include higher soybean exports and crush. Exports are raised 10 million bushels. Crush is raised 15 million bushels reflecting stronger-than-expected domestic soybean meal disappearance and exports. With higher use, carryover drops 25 million bushels to 575 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is raised 5 cents per bushel to $6.40 per bushel.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total 2007 U.S. meat production is reduced slightly because of lower second quarter beef and broiler output and lower expected cattle slaughter later in the year. Total meat output for 2008 is reduced because of lower beef production. The July Cattle report indicated that the 2007 calf crop is smaller than in 2006, and it is expected that there will be fewer cattle to market next year, resulting in lower beef production.
Production forecasts for 2008 pork and poultry are unchanged. The beef export forecasts for 2007 and 2008 are raised on continued improvement in sales to several markets. South Korea's suspension of inspections of U.S. beef is expected to be temporary. Beef import forecasts are raised for 2007 and 2008 because of stronger-than-expected shipments from Oceania and lower expected U.S. cow slaughter next year.
Pork export forecasts forboth 2007 and 2008 are lowered as shipments remain weaker-than-expected. Pork imports are increased as shipments from Canada are expected to remain strong.
Broiler and turkey export forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Forecasts for 2007 and 2008 cattle prices are increased due to tighter cattle supplies as reflected in the July Cattle report. Hog prices for 2007 are reduced slightly in part due to larger domestic supplies. Turkey and egg prices for 2007 are increased due to small expected production gains and firm demand.
Forecast milk production for 2007 is unchanged but raised for 2008. Cow numbers are forecast higher as USDA's Cattle report indicated that producers held 3 percent more heifers for milk cow replacement. High replacement heifer and dairy cow prices indicate strong demand for dairy cows. However, milk production growth is tempered by slower-than-expected gains in milk output per cow. Milk per cow growth is slowed due to continued tight supplies of alfalfa hay and lower rBST use than previously assumed. Demand for dairy products remains firm with strong world prices continuing to support U.S. prices. Cheese and nonfat dry milk price forecasts are raised for both 2007 and 2008. Butter price forecasts are increased in 2007 but lowered in 2008. Whey price forecasts are reduced both years. Despite higher cheese forecasts, the Class III price forecasts are reduced slightly because of lower whey prices. The Class IV price forecast for 2007 is increased, and unchanged in 2008.
The forecasts for all milk are raised from last month. In 2007, the all milk price is forecast to average a record $19.15 to $19.35 per cwt, and then decline to $18.25 to $19.25 per cwt in 2008.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2007/08 ending stocks are down 14 million bushels reflecting lower production.