soybeans against sky

U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected at 6.8 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 80.1 million tons, up 0.1 million tons due to higher cottonseed and peanut output.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.594 billion bushels, down 4 million bushels based on a lower soybean yield of 41.3 bushels per acre. Soybean ending stocks are down 5 million to 210 million bushels.

Soybean and product price forecasts are all raised this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2007/08 is projected at $8.50 to $9.50 per bushel, up 65 cents on both ends of the range, reflecting sharply higher cash and futures prices. Soybean meal prices are projected at $235 to $265 per short ton, up $15 on both ends of the range.

Soybean oil prices are projected at 37.5 to 41.5 cents per pound, up 3 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices at Decatur, Illinois, have recently exceeded 41.5 cents per pound and have increased almost 15 percent in the past month.

Global oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 390.4 million tons, down 1.6 million tons from last month. Foreign production accounts for most of the change as reduced rapeseed and cottonseed production are only partly offset by increased sunflowerseed. Foreign rapeseed production is reduced 1.1 million tons mainly due to lower production prospects for India.

Sharply lower rapeseed area is expected due to India's minimum-support price changes favoring wheat over rapeseed. Rapeseed production is also projected 200,000 tons lower for Australia.

Global cottonseed production is reduced mainly due to lower output for Pakistan where insect damage has reduced prospects for the cotton crop. Sunflowerseed production is raised for Argentina due to increased area as producers respond to sharply higher prices for sunflowerseed relative to other crops.

Other changes include higher rapeseed and sunflowerseed production for EU-27, lower sunflowerseed production for Russia, increased soybean production for Paraguay, and reduced soybean production for China. Global palm oil production for both 2006/07 and 2007/08 is projected higher due to increased output for Indonesia.

Global oilseed ending stocks for 2007/08 are reduced 1.8 million tons to 56.3 million tons mainly reflecting lower soybean stocks in Brazil and China. Brazil stocks are reduced due to a projected increase in soybean crush for both 2006/07 and 2007/08. Global oilseed stocks for 2007/08 are projected down 21 percent from 2006/07. Global vegetable oil ending stocks are projected higher this month mainly due to increased palm oil stocks in Indonesia.

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