Change never stands still for a cattleman trying to throw a saddle on it.

Back in the once-upon-a-times, great cattle drives stirred the dust across Texas and Oklahoma as ranchers pointed their herds up the trail toward Kansas.

That era lasted less than 20 years, though, because the industry changed and, suddenly, being the best trail boss in the world didn’t count for much.

Genetics, health, nutrition, handling, merchandising—none of it looks the same as it did just a decade or two back. And right now, as feed and fertilizer costs leave “through the roof” in the rear-view mirror, the industry may be poised to shift once again.

From his perspective as Oklahoma State University’s Extension agronomy specialist in northeast Oklahoma, Bob Woods can feel change on the wind.

“Over time, our predominant forage system has evolved from a low- input native system to one that’s high input, relying on introduced forages and relatively cheap fertilizer,” he observes. “With the recent steep escalation of fertilizer prices, our cattle industry may have to rethink the methods it uses to produce beef.”

Bermudagrass, tall fescue and plenty of fertilizer transformed the eastern Oklahoma cattle industry from running a cow on 10 or 12 acres of non-fertilized native to a dramatically increased carrying capacity to a cow on 5 acres or less and in some cases a cow on a couple of acres on fertilized bermuda.

But in the past couple of years, the nitrogen fertilizer required to maintain that system has doubled from roughly from 34 cents a pound to 69 cents. The climb for phosphorus is even steeper, climbing from about 22 cents to around 86 cents and potassium is up from 22 cents to 54 cents a pound.

What that has done, in effect, is to increase fertilizer cost per cow from roughly $70 to $100.

It’s a cost that’s hard to escape from, Woods points out:

“A lot of cattle producers increase stocking rates without purchasing adequate amounts of fertilizer and without soil test recommendations,” he says. “As a consequence, the amount of hay required increases, adding even more cost to the forage system.

“In other words, the rancher who has a stocking rate of one cow to five acres but doesn’t fertilize is probably feeding hay for nearly six months and fighting a losing battle with forbs—or, as they probably refer to them, weeds.”

With or without fertilizer, fuel, equipment and fertilizer price increases drive up the value of a bale of hay, Woods points out. For one thing, the value of the nutrients removed when a ton of bermudagrass is harvested has increased dramatically—from about $13.10 per ton for 5 percent crude protein hay in 2006 to around $40.10 in 2008. For high quality hay of 15 percent crude protein, it’s gone from $19.50/ton a couple years ago to $56.58 today.

Take the nutrient removal value and add in a baling cost of $16.46 per bale and you’ve got $59 in a 1200-lb. bale of alfalfa and $49 in a bale of bermuda.

What’s it all add up to? Well, Woods suggests many cattlemen may want to rethink their current systems.